Study methodology

Building a reliable database

"Our first difficulty was to define what a student is. For example, the databases of Unesco, our main source, are declarative. Each country fills in its figures according to its own criteria", explains Nikola Damjanovic.

He gives a few examples of these biases:

• "Sometimes the data is very political. For example, in our longitudinal monitoring, China has suddenly 'gained' 8 million students. Why did this happen? Because India had more. So there was a logic of diplomatic competition;
• In South Korea, the 24-month military service (at the start of our study, it is now 18 months) is a temporary interruption to studies. But the young men concerned were still counted as students during their service".

"All this meant that we had to adjust the data and harmonise the definitions to build a reliable base. It was on this basis that we were able to carry out our analyses", explains Nikola Damjanovic.

"Paxter index": The rate of access to higher education

Nikola Damjanovic explains that he has "constructed a specific indicator: the 'Paxter index' access rate, which we call the alpha rate. The formula is simple:

• we start with the number of students registered with Unesco United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization ;
• add the nationals who have gone abroad;
• subtract foreigners who have come to study in the country;
• and for some countries, we make a Paxter correction".

"This adjustment work, briefly described here, actually took several years", adds Pierre Tapie.

Origins of the study

"The origins of this study go back to 2011, at the time of the youth revolts in several southern Mediterranean countries. At the time, we looked at one indicator: the ratio between unemployment among young graduates and unemployment among young people in general. In other words, to what extent does having a degree protect you from unemployment?

He continues: "In France, this ratio is 0.5. Young graduates are half as likely to be unemployed as young people in general. This is also the case in Northern European countries. But if we look at Italy or Spain, this ratio rises to 0.8. So, in these countries, a diploma protects, but much less so.

And if we go south of the Mediterranean, the ratio exceeds 1.5. The average unemployment rate for young people there is 20%, and for young graduates 30%. A degree seems to make unemployment worse. It was at this point that Pierre Aliphat and I said to ourselves: There's a problem here".

Analysis by country clusters

"We also wanted to know whether these phenomena were structural or cyclical. So we took four very different countries (Canada, Colombia, Egypt and France) and for each, we plotted the curves for total unemployment, unemployment among graduates, non-graduates, young graduates, etc, from 1990 to 2018", explains Pierre Tapie.

The study shows that the curves retain their relative position over time.

• "In Canada, young non-graduates are the most affected by unemployment. Generally speaking, the acquisition of a diploma effectively protects against unemployment;
• The situation is very different in Colombia, where young graduates are the most likely to be unemployed. In 2019, 22.5% of them were unemployed;
• The situation in Egypt is even worse than in Colombia. In 2019, 65% of young Egyptian graduates were unemployed, compared with 16.5% of young non-graduates;
• In France, a degree is a major factor in access to employment. Only 5% of graduates are unemployed, compared with 12.5% of non-graduates. However, the youth unemployment rate remains 2.5 times higher than the general unemployment rate.

Description of the five clusters